CASH — fully out
- Rules long
- 0 of 5
- Week ended
- 2026-08-09
- Weekly close
- $64,902
- Live price
- $65,198
| MA | value | state | Sunday flip | now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14w ~98d | $67,743 | CASH | enter > $66,630 | — |
| 21w ~147d | $69,194 | CASH | enter > $69,261 | — |
| 29w ~203d | $69,934 | CASH | enter > $69,336 | — |
| 36w ~252d | $73,874 | CASH | enter > $73,402 | — |
| 43w ~301d | $78,358 | CASH | enter > $77,637 | — |
Live projection loading…
| If Sunday closes… | allocation | |
|---|---|---|
| below $66,630 | 0% | ← live price |
| $66,630 – $69,261 | 20% | |
| $69,261 – $69,336 | 40% | |
| $69,336 – $73,402 | 60% | |
| $73,402 – $77,637 | 80% | |
| above $77,637 | 100% |
Each rule that is long = 20% of the BTC allocation. Rebalance only after a Sunday UTC close changes the count — never intra-week, wherever the live price wanders.
Week closes in …
2026-08-17 00:00 UTC
An evidence-based risk-management model that has historically captured most of BTC's upside with roughly half its drawdowns — and survived every attempt we made to break or improve it. Not proven, not "the best": tested, robust, and honest about its costs.
What is this signal? How it works & why
What it is. Five trend rules, not one: the Sunday UTC close compared against its 14, 21, 29, 36 and 43-week moving averages (roughly the 100–300 day range). Each rule that is long contributes 20% allocation — 0/5 = full cash, 5/5 = fully long. One decision per week; intra-week moves are deliberately ignored.
How it works. Trend-following doesn't predict — it reacts, cutting exposure in sustained declines and riding advances. Using five lengths removes the bet on which single length the future favors: exposure phases in and out in 20% steps as the averages flip one by one, instead of jumping all-or-nothing on one line.
What it means. Unanimity is the strong state: in 2018–2026, weeks with all five long averaged +1.7% the following week; all five cash, +0.3%. Mixed counts are transition regimes — the graded allocation deliberately keeps size small through that chop. Every rule's flip level for next Sunday is listed above, so the coming decision is always known in advance.
Why we use it. The ensemble beat both buy-and-hold and the single 29-week rule in-sample and in both halves tested separately (2018–2026: CAGR +38% vs +34% hold, Sharpe 0.88 vs 0.56, max drawdown -48% vs -75%). It still lags in straight-up bull years — that lag is the insurance premium.
NORMAL — positioning is balanced
Right now leveraged longs are paying shorts +0.0079% every 8 hours (≈+9%/yr). That is close to the 90-day norm — no crowding either way. This neither supports nor argues against the current signal.
What is funding? How it works & why we list it
What it is. Every 8 hours, Binance perpetual-futures traders pay each other to keep the contract pinned to spot: positive funding = leveraged longs pay shorts (bullish crowding), negative = shorts pay longs (bearish crowding). It's a real cash flow, not a chart pattern.
How it works here. We sum each day's three payments and z-score them against the trailing 90 days: cheap is more than 1σ below normal, froth more than 1σ above.
What it means. In our 2019–2026 study, froth during CASH periods preceded below-average returns and cheap preceded bounces — in both halves of the sample. During LONG periods froth is just momentum and predicts nothing bad.
Why we list it — and why it changes nothing. We tested sizing the strategy off this gauge and it made returns worse, so no rule uses it. It's here as context for discipline: when a rally during a CASH period tempts an early entry, a froth reading is the historical evidence against taking the bait.
Last 8 weekly closes
| 2026-08-09 | $64,902 |
| 2026-08-02 | $63,570 |
| 2026-07-26 | $65,400 |
| 2026-07-19 | $64,723 |
| 2026-07-12 | $63,780 |
| 2026-07-05 | $63,650 |
| 2026-06-28 | $59,577 |
| 2026-06-21 | $63,312 |